Category: Current & Economic Events

Concerns that a trade war will lead to a recession have recently spread around the globe. The possibility of retaliatory tariffs is on investors’ minds, with China responding with counter-tariffs, increasing the odds of a worst-case trade war scenario. Markets in Asia and Europe have declined alongside U.S. stocks, and there has been a “flight to safety” as bond prices rise and interest rates fall.

On April 2, President Trump announced new tariffs on nearly all major trading partners. These tariffs are “reciprocal” in that they correspond to tariffs each country imposes on U.S. goods and are on top of previously announced duties.

The stock market has stumbled year-to-date, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declining. While tariffs have garnered the most attention, investors are also concerned about mixed economic signals, including weak consumer confidence, hotter inflation, government worker layoffs, and more. Some are now wondering if there will be a recession, and President Trump did not rule out the possibility in recent interviews. How can investors maintain perspective in this challenging market and economic environment?

Trade headlines continue to weigh on markets as new tariffs go into effect. President Trump recently confirmed tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China, dashing hopes of more extensions or last-minute deals. Additional tariffs are expected in the coming months, including reciprocal ones against countries that impose duties on U.S. goods

In 2023 markets reversed their 2022 performance with strong gains across both stocks and bonds. The S&P 500, Dow, and Nasdaq all generated exceptional returns last year: 26.3%, 16.2%, and 44.7% respectively (with reinvested dividends). The S&P has come full circle and is now only a fraction of a percentage point below the all-time high from exactly two years ago. The US 10-Year Treasury yield climbed as high as 5% in October before falling to end the year around 3.9%, pushing bond prices higher in the process.

Interest rates have swung wildly over the past two years in response to inflation, economic concerns, and market volatility. After falling as low as 3.3% earlier this year, the 10-year U.S. Treasury is now yielding around 4.2%, back to where it was roughly a year ago. However, while today's long-term yields look similar to last year's on paper, they are quite different from an economic and market perspective. What are interest rates telling us today and how does this impact long-term investors?

The world has been abuzz over artificial intelligence and its possible benefits and threats. These range from the practical, such as better tools for knowledge workers and ways for students to avoid writing papers, to the philosophical, including what it means to be sentient and how such an emergent phenomenon could impact human civilization. In between, there are more mundane questions around the economy and markets, especially for technology-related sectors. Given the promises and hyperbole around AI, what makes sense for long-term investors?