June 2022

The S&P 500 officially fell to bear market levels this week. Rapid inflation across the economy has affected consumers and businesses, raising questions about spending and corporate profits. These pressures have pushed interest rates higher across the curve, breaking a four-decade pattern of falling yields.

Simple is good, right? If you want to get something, the direct approach is best. Yes, simple is good, but simplistic is not. Many times the straightforward approach gets you exactly the opposite of what you actually want. The world we live in is complex, largely unknown (to each individual in it), and full of feedback loops and consequences….

One question at the forefront of investors’ minds is whether the economy can achieve a so-called “soft landing” in the face of high inflation, rising interest rates, Fed rate hikes, geopolitical conflicts, and other challenges. A soft landing would require the economy to slow gradually without creating a downward spiral in consumer demand and business investment.